MORE POWER for Jan. 13th
1000 MORE's weekly nonpartisan roundup of the most important happenings in federal government, written in a way that doesn't require a law degree to understand, with tools to take action
January 13, 2023
This week in MORE POWER, we cover what's ahead for the 118th Congress. While Democrats retain power in the Senate and control what bills get a vote in that chamber this term, power has changed hands in the House and Republicans now control the voting schedule there. Based on what we have seen so far, we anticipate a flurry of bills that reflect the differing priorities of the two parties, but we do not expect many pieces of legislation to get the votes to pass both chambers and get signed into law.
Here's what we forsee on:
Abortion
Guns
Labor & Economy
Climate
Immigration
Roe turns 50 this month...and it still hasn't been made law.
Abortion
In October, President Biden promised that if Democrats held the House and the Senate in the midterm elections, he would open the 118th Congress with a bill to codify the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision into law. While Democrats kept control of the Senate in the midterms, they lost the House. Codifying Roe is now very unlikely, as any bills protecting or taking away abortion rights need bipartisan support to pass both chambers of Congress.
It is especially unlikely since one of the first pieces of legislation passed in the House this term was H.R.26, the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act. The bill passed along a near party-line vote, with 219 Republicans and one Democrat, Rep. Henry Cuellar (R-TX) voting for it.
This bill would establish additional requirements for the degree of care a health care practitioner must provide in the case of a child born alive following an abortion or attempted abortion. It also mandates criminal penalties—a fine, up to five years in prison, or both - for providers who fail to comply. Doctors and patient advocates see this bill as redundant and unnecessary, given that the bipartisan 2002 Born-Alive Infants Protection Act is already on the books.
The Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act now goes to the Senate, where it is extremely unlikely to be scheduled for a vote, given that Democrats who support abortion rights are in charge. The House also has H.R.7 No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion and Abortion Insurance Full Disclosure Act on the schedule for a vote this week, though no vote has been scheduled yet.
Guns
On Tuesday, Illinois became the ninth state to sign an assault weapons ban bill into law. The White House released a statement commending Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker for his work on this legislation. The statement also renewed President Biden’s commitment for more action to keep our homes, schools and communities safe, including federal laws requiring background checks for all gun sales and a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.
While Congress passed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act last summer with bipartisan support - the first significant piece of gun safety legislation in nearly 30 years - the federal assault weapons ban bill that Biden supported only passed the House. With a divided Congress this term, this bill is unlikely to pass the House, largely leaving assault weapons bans to state legislatures.
Additionally, the House has been busy reintroducing gun legislation from previous terms this week.
Labor & Economy
Congress is struggling to provide a solution for record inflation rates and the increasing cost of living. As we are rapidly approaching the country’s debt ceiling, the parties are conflicted on how to balance the issues and the books.
With Republicans in control of the House, we are seeing a rapid shift in how they plan to address inflation and costs. Republicans are walking back the Democrats’ plan to tackle the rising cost of living through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that passed last year. On Monday, House Republicans sent H.R.23 to the Senate, a bill that would rescind $80 million of funds that the IRA had appropriated for the IRS to hire new tax agents, largely to replace retiring agents and improve customer service. Democrats argue these funds would better allow the IRS to crack down on tax avoiders.
Additionally, Republicans will likely reintroduce the Protecting Drug Innovation Act. This bill was introduced through the Senate last Congress but failed to pass. This bill would rescind another component of the IRA intended to cap drug prices and allow the government to negotiate drug prices for Medicare.
Furthermore, cuts to entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security are being discussed as part of negotiations to raise the debt ceiling. During midterms, we heard conflicting statements from GOP representatives that cuts may be coming. Ultimately, the party said they would not cut spending to these programs. Democrats may have to make compromises on these programs to get Republicans to agree to raise the debt limit.
Will they pass climate legislation, or will they...
Climate
In August of last year, Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act. While targeting inflation, this bill is also the most significant piece of climate change legislation passed in this country’s history, providing $386B for climate and energy, including tax credits, energy infrastructure projects, rural development plans, and grant funds for green energy projects.
Looking forward, centrist bipartisan representatives are now working to pass permitting reform to make access to these funds easier and to better enact the goals of the funds. In order to spend money on large energy and infrastructure projects, the federal government must go through a significant permitting review process that is recognized by both parties as creating unreasonable delays in achieving agenda goals.
Permitting reform debates and the outcome of concessions to the left on environmental protection vs. concessions to the right on fossil fuel infrastructure will determine how the federal government can spend the funds outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act. Despite a heavy push for permitting reform at the end of last Congress, parties did not reach a compromise.
Additionally, in the House, bills that impact the environment were reintroduced this week, like H.R.246, which would prevent the EPA from imposing a methane emissions fee on certain facilities, and H.R. 250, which would change the Federal Water Pollution Control Act to provide financial assistance through a State water pollution control fund. Broadly speaking, we anticipate that bills that Republicans can pass along a party line vote will get a vote in the House, and that the only bipartisan climate bills to pass both chambers will be energy related, such as permit reform, or disaster relief bills
Immigration & The Southern Border
Congress and the White House are looking for legislative solutions to what both parties are calling a “crisis” at the border. Over the last several Congressional sessions, we have seen many immigration reform bills fail due to party divisions, including President Biden’s U.S. Citizenship Act in 2021. But the number of migrants crossing the southern border continues to rise, and Congress has not yet allocated the resources to determine if migrants have a legal right to stay.
The current piece of legislation addressing immigration and the border is H.R. 29 - Border Safety and Security Act. As it stands, this bill is very limited. It allows the Secretary of Homeland Security to suspend the entry of immigrants for security purposes. This bill may pass the House on a party line vote with GOP support, but it does not have the Democratic support needed to pass the Senate. The Senate may, however, use this bill as a starting point and amend it to reflect a bipartisan agenda then send it back to the House.
We also expect to see more headline grabbing bills from House Republicans this term, like H.R.355, the Illegal Alien NICS Alert Act, which is on the schedule for a vote this week as well. If passed and signed in to law, this bill would require the background check system to notify ICE and law enforcement agencies whenever the system indicates that a person illegally or unlawfully in the country may be attempting to receive a firearm.
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